Overview & Key Performance Indicators
Base Case: Phase 1 modular refinery, 40,000 bpd design feedstock capacity, $70/bbl Brent, anchored by U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) debt. All figures derive from the GLIAG bankability financial model.
EBITDA vs. Oil Price — Phase 1, 40,000 bpd, DFC Anchor
EBITDA (US$ millions) across Brent price scenarios for the Phase 1 base feedstock configuration under DFC-anchored financing.
NOT ONE BARREL refined domestically. The entire basin's crude output is exported for refining abroad — the core strategic opportunity this analysis addresses.
IRR not computed where payback exceeds the model horizon or return is below the solver threshold. Where irr_equity_pct is null in the model, values are shown as “—” / “N/A” throughout this dashboard.
Scenario Analysis
All 120 modelled scenarios across phases, oil prices, feedstock volumes and financing structures. Point size reflects feedstock volume (bpd); colour reflects development phase.
DSCR vs. Brent Price — All Scenarios
Phase 1 · DFC Anchor Scenarios (sorted by oil price)
| Oil Price | Feedstock (bpd) | EBITDA $M | DSCR | NPV $M | Bankable? |
|---|
DSCR Sensitivity Heatmap
Debt Service Coverage Ratio across Brent price (rows) and feedstock volume (columns). Green cells clear the 1.50x target; amber sit between 1.25x–1.50x; red fall below the 1.25x bankability minimum.
DSCR by Oil Price × Feedstock Volume
Annotation marks the base-case Phase 1 operating point. Colour scale: Red (<1.25) → Orange (1.25–1.50) → Green (>1.50).
NPV / IRR Analysis
Equity NPV (US$ millions) and Return on Equity across oil price scenarios for Phase 1, 40,000 bpd under DFC-anchored financing. The breakeven line marks NPV = 0.
NPV Equity & ROE by Oil Price — Phase 1, 40k bpd DFC
Left axis: NPV Equity ($M) with breakeven reference at zero. Right axis: Return on Equity (%).
NPV Sensitivity to Discount Rate × Brent Price
Equity NPV ($M) across discount rates (8%–18%) and Brent price scenarios ($45–$100/bbl).
Modular Scaling Economics
CAPEX and base-case EBITDA scale across modular capacity increments spanning Phase 1 (teal), Phase 2 (gold) and Phase 3 (navy). The line traces declining unit CAPEX ($/bpd) — the modular economies-of-scale curve.
CAPEX & EBITDA by Capacity — with Unit CAPEX Curve
Left axis: CAPEX and base EBITDA ($M). Right axis: CAPEX per bpd ($/bpd).
Pro Forma Cash Flow
20-year pro forma showing EBITDA against annual debt service, resulting DSCR, and free cash flow to equity (FCFE).
EBITDA vs. Debt Service & DSCR
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
Feedstock Portfolio
Crude supply composition at the full 160,000 bpd hub scenario, and modelled certainty of feedstock availability across build-out stages.
Feedstock Sources — Full Hub (160,000 bpd)
Feedstock Certainty by Build-Out Stage
Colour-coded by supply certainty: GREEN = HIGH, AMBER = MEDIUM, RED = LOW.
ExxonMobil target: 1.7 million bpd by 2030. Zero barrels refined in Guyana or Suriname — an unrefined regional crude supply of historic scale.